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I have long been intrigued by the close
inter-relationship between economics and politics and have
in fact written casually about it from time to time. I
believe that whilst economics provide the strict
disciplines to resources formation and allocation,
politics is the collective process undertaken by the
community to ensure that these exercises are done
rationally, equitably and with a high degree of
transparency. In short, they are like the two legs of
progress for humanity and we can only take one step with
each leg in turn in order to maintain steady and sure
progress.
This is the theme that I took when I
met with leaders of China last September. During that
trip, I have consistently advocated that the political and
economic development of Hong Kong should progress in
tandem. I would also say that with the economy recovering
now, the next desirable step that China can take for Hong
Kong is a policy of engagement with the democratic camps
in Hong Kong and hopefully, vice versa. Before we take
this important step, it is difficult for me to see how
Hong Kong can suddenly race towards full democracy.
Election year
The year of the Monkey is a particular
mischievous year for politics where rational economic
decisions can be easily marred by three very important and
hotly contested elections, all with unpredictable
results. The results of elections in Taiwan, the United
States and later on in Hong Kong itself could all have a
considerable impact on the course of development of our
still fragile economy. As a small economy vulnerable to
outside influences, it is important that we must all set
aside our differences in domestic politics and guard
vigilantly our long term overall economic interests with
one mind and one voice. I shall discuss some of these
implications below from both the international and local
perspectives.
The presidential election in Taiwan is
in earnest progress at the time of writing this message.
Tension is high both within Taiwan itself and across the
Strait. As part of their campaigns, the presidential
candidates have played up the referendum issue on the
territory¡¦s position on unification with the Chinese
mainland. Although the authorities in China have been
upset, they are still holding a pragmatic view and are
waiting to see how the course of events will unfold.
However, there is no telling what they might do if the
Taiwanese leaders make a misjudged move under pressure.
Then emotions might flare and an excuse for economic
sanctions could easily present itself as a form of penalty
to be meted out. Unless the ¡¥touch and go¡¦ situation
begins to calm down after the election, one rushed act of
politics might just end up with no winners at all.
The presidential election in the United
States in the rather more distant future is another case
in point. It is probably impossible and futile for us to
try to tell American politicians to keep their ideas of
the world a bit more to themselves. This is especially
true in election year. It might not be difficult to see
also that foreign policy may be regarded by some as a weak
link in the present Administration and mileage might be
gained in raising hosts of foreign policy issues as part
of the fiercely contested election campaign. Chinese
politics has been an old favorite and Hong Kong, one of
its sore spots. Despite the obvious unwillingness of the
people of Hong Kong to be drawn into this type of
politicking overseas, we might still live to suffer the
consequences. That is what I would call ¡¥excessive
politics¡¦ at play.
The recent saga of Martin Lee¡¦s visit
to the House of Senates and the untimely visit from the
¡¥US-China Economic and Security Review Commission¡¦ have
been met with unexpected emotions showing just how
sensitive China and Hong Kong are to any perceived outside
interventions. Unfortunate for us too, the growing
mistrust amidst the counter-productive war of words
between the pro-China groups and the democrats in Hong
Kong might mean a wrong step which is out of phase with
progress of political development at a critical time.
Lessons to learn
I do, however, wish to think that there
can be some positive lessons to learn from all of these
events.
Firstly, the people of Hong Kong must
be able to stand proudly at all times to defend a record
of self reliance and self determination. If we wish to
earn a high degree of autonomy for self-rule, we must
first learn to stand on our own two feet and not to
constantly seek help from others. No begging from China
and most certainly not asking for unwelcome help from
other foreign powers to resolve our own domestic
squabbles.
Secondly, it is a chance for us to
¡¥wise up¡¦ in the way we deal with foreign affairs.
Despite the fact that Hong Kong cannot have formal
diplomatic relations with the outside world, we still
desperately need the diplomatic experience to deal with
sensitive predicaments that might arise from time to
time. In the long run, we need to develop career foreign
affairs experts if we are to hold out as the most
important international centre for China where the realms
of international politics and trade issues are becoming
increasingly intertwined. It would also help to keep our
inexperienced bureaucrats and politicians at a safe
distance from the tight rope of partisan diplomacy.
Thirdly, it provides a chance to show
solidarity in Hong Kong if we can for once keep our minds
off our own elections for a moment. With the political
storms brewing outside our doorstep and our weak economy
just beginning to recover, it is really not a good time to
be excessive fault finders, looking for excuses to launch
attacks on each other. The people of Hong Kong are smart
and it is often not difficult to see if an act of politics
is for the tangible benefit of Hong Kong or just ones own
standing. To indulge in excessive politicking might
simply burn out their enthusiasm and eventually the will
to support and to participate in this important process.
Turning closer to home, the hot topics
of the day are the Government¡¦s Budget; the never ending
debates on political reform and of course, the upcoming
Legislative Council election lurking in the background.
Again these issues do not really mix well and I hope that
they don¡¦t. Especially for the Budget which is already
carefully designed to be un-provocative.
Some of us have criticized the
Financial Secretary for not doing enough and that he is
just waiting for good fortune to befall Hong Kong. It is
true that the Budget falls short of all three targets set
by the former Financial Secretary, that is, the $20
billion target of additional revenues; $20 billion cost
cutting measures and another $30 billion additional
revenue to be generated from economy recovery. But I
think that the Financial Secretary is simply waiting for
the economy recovery to truly take hold before making his
next move. Depending on the strength of this unexpectedly
rapid recovery, he will then decide how to adjust these
targets set and place the stamp of his authority on future
budgets.
I consider it wholly reasonable for him
to decide on such a strategy since he has only taken
office for a few months and it may be unwise for him to
hastily dismantle the financial blue prints already put in
place before he is sure of the direction, speed, depth,
magnitude and sustainability of the present economic
recovery. In the face of the upcoming political
uncertainties, we should give this Budget a break and
exercise similar patience in the Financial Secretary.
On our future political development, I
would like to share a fitting quote I heard from the
Secretary of Justice. She said that in describing a
bottle half full of water, an optimist would say that it
is half full. However, a pessimist would call it half
empty but it is the accountants, or a person like me, to
say that the bottle is really twice the size it needs to
be!
What fits Hong Kong best in the present
situation is probably not what suits only our business
interests or the inspired democrats. Rather, we should
walk a step from where we now stand instead of just
wishing to hop to a place where we hope to be.
Taking strides
If we take a look a where we are
standing now, Hong Kong is already blessed with the
highest degree of freedom, an affluent society by most
standards and a well-defined goal of universal suffrage
before 2047 guaranteed by the Basic Law. We should also
be able to see that our economy is integrating well with
the Chinese mainland and our positive influence on it has
been far more than just economics but also our
internationalized culture and a forward more liberal way
of thinking. In a world that rewards patience, self
reliance and steady progress, is it worth risking serious
discord with the Chinese mainland and to just brush aside
genuine political and business concerns of a great number
of us in order to pursue a hurried reform?
The issue of political development is
vital to our long-term economic health as well and any
excessive politicking might only raise the temperature for
discussion and propel our debates to an irrational path.
In that case, we are more likely to stumble instead of
taking another stride forward with the next leg in turn.
Dr Eric Li is the LegCo
Accountancy Functional Constituency Representative. For
more information, refer to his website at
http://www.ericli.org
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